Predicting things accurately is hard and saying there are 50/50 odds makes it sound like you’re just guessing. Why not say “there’s a one in three chance” instead?
“Ah-well-ah everybody’s heard about the third!
Third, third, third—third is the word!
[Repeat to ∞.]”
—Larry Summers
“Ah-well-ah everybody’s heard about the third!
Third, third, third—third is the word!
[Repeat to ∞.]”
—Larry Summers